Empirical Implications of Bargaining Theory Conference

April 8, 2015

Dates: Thursday, May 14- Friday, May 15, 2015
Location: Sherrerd Hall 101
Instructor: Kristopher Ramsay

The Program for Quantitative and Analytical Political Science at Princeton University is sponsoring a conference on the Empirical Implications of Bargaining Theory in international relations.  The goal of the conference is to bring together scholars working in this area to discuss their work and grow our community.

Sponsored by:  The Research Program in Political Economy (RPPE),
Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance (NCGG),
The Program for Quantitative and Analytical Political Science (Q-APS)

Thursday, May 14, 2015 

Noon-1:00pm: 

Opening Lunch/Opening Remarks
Location: 127 Corwin Hall

1:00-2:15pm Session 1 – Quantitatively Testing Bargaining
Location: Sherrerd Hall, Classroom 101
Speaker: Brenton Kenkel (Vanderbilt University)
“A Quantitative Theory of Bargaining and War” Co-author: Kristopher Ramsay (Princeton University)
Discussant: William Reed (University of Maryland)
Speaker: Hein Goemans (University of Rochester)
“Aims, Claims, and the Bargaining Model” (Co-author: Ken Schultz
Discussant: Anne Sartori (MIT)
2:15pm: Break
2:30-3:45pm: Session 2 – Democracy, Economic Interdependence, and War
Location: Sherrerd Hall, Classroom 101
Speaker: James D. Morrow (University of Michigan)
“Democratic Credibility: You Won’t Find it if You Look in the Wrong Place”
Discussant: Erik Gartzke (University of California, San Diego)
Speaker: Alexandre Debs (Yale University)
“An Economic Theory of War” Co-author: Nuno P. Monteiro (Yale University)
Discussant: Catherine Langlois (Georgetown University)
3:45pm: Break
4:00-5:15pm: Session 3 - Empirically Evaluating the Role of Uncertainty in Crisis Bargaining
Location: Sherrerd Hall, Classroom 101
Speaker: Jeffrey Kaplow (University of California, San Diego)
“The Determinants of Uncertainty in International Relations” Co-author: Erik Gartzke (University of California, San Diego)
Discussant: Oliver Westerwinter (St. Gallen University)
Speaker: Paul Poast (Rutgers University)
“(In)Consistency in Past Deterrent Behavior” Co-author: Gary Uzonyi (UMass, Lowel)
Discussant: Shawn Ramirez (Emory University)
5:15-6:30pm: Happy Hour
Carl A. Field Center, Large Multipurpose Room 104
7:00pm: Dinner
Witherspoon Grill, 57 Witherspoon Street, Princeton

Friday, May 15, 2015

8:30-9:00am: Breakfast
Location: Sherrerd Hall, Main Lobby
9:15-10:30am: Session 4 –Rethinking the Bargaining Model
Location: Sherrerd Hall, Classroom 101
Speaker: James D. Fearon (Stanford University)
“Cooperation and Conflict under Anarchy”
Discussant: Mark Fey (University of Rochester)
Speaker: Mark Fey (University of Rochester)
“Is the Bargaining Model of War Falisifiable?”
Discussant: Mehdi Shadmehr (University of Miami/Princeton University)
10:30am: Break
10:45am – Noon:

Session 5 – Dynamics and the Bargaining Model
Location: Sherrerd Hall, Classroom 101
Speaker: Richard Jordan (Princeton University)
"War has its own momentum: How windows of opportunity prevent negotiated settlements"

Discussant: Alexandre Debs (Yale University)
Speaker: Jakana Thomas (Michigan State University)
"Battle Outcomes and Rebel Negotiation Attempts in Civil Wars"
Discussant: Dan Reiter (Emory University)
12:15-1:30pm: Lunch
Prospect House, Room E
1:45-3:00pm:

Session 6 – Secrecy and War
Location: Sherrerd Hall, Classroom 101
Speaker: Shuhei Kurizaki (Wasada University)
“Inferring Secret Diplomacy” Co-author: Taehee Wang (Yonsei University)

Discussant: Brenton Kenkel (Vanderbilt University)
Speaker: Robert Schub (Harvard University)
“Mutual Optimism as a Cause of Conflict: Secret Alliances and Conflict Onset” Co-author: Muhammet Bas (Harvard University)
Discussant: Kristopher Ramsay (Princeton University)
3:00-4:15pm: Session 7 - Connections and Conflict
Location: Sherrerd Hall, Classroom 101
Speaker: David Carter (Princeton University)
“The Historical Origins of Territorial Conflict” Co-author: Scott Abramson (University of Rochester)
Discussant: Scott Wolford (University of Texas)
Speaker: Oliver Westerwinter (St. Gallen University)
“War is in the Variance/Covariance Structure of the Error Term Bargaining, Information Networks and Interstate Conflict”
Discussant: Paul Poast (Rutgers University)
4:15-4:30pm: Closing Remarks/Discussion